Low prevalence, quasi-stationarity and power-law distribution in a model of spreading

Understanding how contagions (information, infections, etc) are spread on complex networks is important both from practical as well as theoretical point of view. Considerable work has been done in this regard in the past decade or so. However, most models are limited in their scope and as a result only capture general features of spreading phenomena. Here, we propose and study a model of spreading which takes into account the strength or quality of contagions as well as the local (probabilistic) dynamics occurring at various nodes. Transmission occurs only after the quality-based fitness of the contagion has been evaluated by the local agent. The model exhibits quality-dependent exponential time scales at early times leading to a slowly evolving quasi-stationary state. Low prevalence is seen for a wide range of contagion quality for arbitrary large networks. We also investigate the activity of nodes and find a power-law distribution with a robust exponent independent of network topology. Our results are consistent with recent empirical observations.Comment: 7 pages, 8 figures. (Submitted

Canonical horizontal visibility graphs are uniquely determined by their degree sequence

Horizontal visibility graphs (HVGs) are graphs constructed in correspondence with number sequences that have been introduced and explored recently in the context of graph-theoretical time series analysis. In most of the cases simple measures based on the degree sequence (or functionals of these such as entropies over degree and joint degree distributions) appear to be highly informative features for automatic classification and provide nontrivial information on the associated dynam- ical process, working even better than more sophisticated topological metrics. It is thus an open question why these seemingly simple measures capture so much information. Here we prove that, under suitable conditions, there exist a bijection between the adjacency matrix of an HVG and its degree sequence, and we give an explicit construction of such bijection. As a consequence, under these conditions HVGs are unigraphs and the degree sequence fully encapsulates all the information of these graphs, thereby giving a plausible reason for its apparently unreasonable effectiveness

Markov Properties of Electrical Discharge Current Fluctuations in Plasma

Using the Markovian method, we study the stochastic nature of electrical discharge current fluctuations in the Helium plasma. Sinusoidal trends are extracted from the data set by the Fourier-Detrended Fluctuation analysis and consequently cleaned data is retrieved. We determine the Markov time scale of the detrended data set by using likelihood analysis. We also estimate the Kramers-Moyal's coefficients of the discharge current fluctuations and derive the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation. In addition, the obtained Langevin equation enables us to reconstruct discharge time series with similar statistical properties compared with the observed in the experiment. We also provide an exact decomposition of temporal correlation function by using Kramers-Moyal's coefficients. We show that for the stationary time series, the two point temporal correlation function has an exponential decaying behavior with a characteristic correlation time scale. Our results confirm that, there is no definite relation between correlation and Markov time scales. However both of them behave as monotonic increasing function of discharge current intensity. Finally to complete our analysis, the multifractal behavior of reconstructed time series using its Keramers-Moyal's coefficients and original data set are investigated. Extended self similarity analysis demonstrates that fluctuations in our experimental setup deviates from Kolmogorov (K41) theory for fully developed turbulence regime.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures and 4 tables. V3: Added comments, references, figures and major correction

Complex systems methods characterizing nonlinear processes in the near-Earth electromagnetic environment: recent advances and open challenges

Learning from successful applications of methods originating in statistical mechanics, complex systems science, or information theory in one scientific field (e.g., atmospheric physics or climatology) can provide important insights or conceptual ideas for other areas (e.g., space sciences) or even stimulate new research questions and approaches. For instance, quantification and attribution of dynamical complexity in output time series of nonlinear dynamical systems is a key challenge across scientific disciplines. Especially in the field of space physics, an early and accurate detection of characteristic dissimilarity between normal and abnormal states (e.g., pre-storm activity vs. magnetic storms) has the potential to vastly improve space weather diagnosis and, consequently, the mitigation of space weather hazards. This review provides a systematic overview on existing nonlinear dynamical systems-based methodologies along with key results of their previous applications in a space physics context, which particularly illustrates how complementary modern complex systems approaches have recently shaped our understanding of nonlinear magnetospheric variability. The rising number of corresponding studies demonstrates that the multiplicity of nonlinear time series analysis methods developed during the last decades offers great potentials for uncovering relevant yet complex processes interlinking different geospace subsystems, variables and spatiotemporal scales

Wind Power Persistence Characterized by Superstatistics

Mitigating climate change demands a transition towards renewable electricity generation, with wind power being a particularly promising technology. Long periods either of high or of low wind therefore essentially define the necessary amount of storage to balance the power system. While the general statistics of wind velocities have been studied extensively, persistence (waiting) time statistics of wind is far from well understood. Here, we investigate the statistics of both high- and low-wind persistence. We find heavy tails and explain them as a superposition of different wind conditions, requiring q-exponential distributions instead of exponential distributions. Persistent wind conditions are not necessarily caused by stationary atmospheric circulation patterns nor by recurring individual weather types but may emerge as a combination of multiple weather types and circulation patterns. This also leads to Fréchet instead of Gumbel extreme value statistics. Understanding wind persistence statistically and synoptically may help to ensure a reliable and economically feasible future energy system, which uses a high share of wind generation

Causality and information transfer between the solar wind and the magnetosphere–ionosphere system

An information-theoretic approach for detecting causality and information transfer is used to identify interactions of solar activity and interplanetary medium conditions with the Earth’s magnetosphere–ionosphere systems. A causal information transfer from the solar wind parameters to geomagnetic indices is detected. The vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) influences the auroral electrojet (AE) index with an information transfer delay of 10 min and the geomagnetic disturbances at mid-latitudes measured by the symmetric field in the H component (SYM-H) index with a delay of about 30 min. Using a properly conditioned causality measure, no causal link between AE and SYM-H, or between magnetospheric substorms and magnetic storms can be detected. The observed causal relations can be described as linear time-delayed information transfer. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland